The college football world was wishing for a March Madness type of feel for the first-ever 12-team College Football Playoff, with upsets galore. Instead, the four first-round matchups underwhelmed, supplying plenty of time for holiday shopping. Favorites went an ideal 4-0 versus the spread, consisting of 3 relatively non-competitive performances by underdogs Indiana, SMU and Tennessee. Sportsbooks and the general public do not appear to think so. A minimum of in two cases.
Both Penn State-Boise State and Texas-Arizona State function double-digit spreads preferring the lower-seeded Nittany Lions and Longhorns. And the latter has actually been a specifically popular choice with the general public. The Longhorns -12.5 is the most-bet side at BetMGM nationally in regards to overall dollars since Monday afternoon.
"All the cash is coming in on Texas," Seamus Magee, a BetMGM trader, wrote in a text message to The Athletic. "We need Arizona State to cover +13.5."
The enthusiasm for the Longhorns encompasses the futures market also. Bear in mind that enormous $1.5 million wager on Texas to win it all at +390 odds? The ticket is still out there at .
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Interestingly, the Longhorns' opponent, Arizona State - the most significant underdog amongst the College Football quarterfinal matchups - is getting the most love from sharp bettors. The Athletic talked with several bookmakers who had actually taken sharp action on No. 4 Arizona State - which had gotten as high as a 14-point underdog at some books against No. 5 Texas - to push the line to -12.5 or -12.
John Murray, the executive director at The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, told us he got a wager on Arizona State +13.5 from a "very respected player."
Although highly regarded money has actually been available in on Arizona State to cover, sportsbooks will likely require the Sun Devils to do simply that, as public bettors are overdoing Texas.
"We would like to see ASU cover, and then Texas win the video game, so we get our Arizona State liability off the futures book," Magee included.
While the Texas game will be huge for the books, it isn't the only game in town. We talked with numerous bookies to break down where the sports betting action is on the other three College Football quarterfinal matches. 6 Penn State (-11, 53) at No. 3 Boise State
This game opened Penn State -10.5 at many sportsbooks and has sneaked up somewhat to a consensus of -11. sports betting on the spread is relatively divided at many sportsbooks. The total dollars wagered varies by book, as 52% of bets and 79% of the money at BetMGM nationally are on Boise State -11, while 56% of bets but just 42% of the money at DraftKings is on Boise State -11.5. Penn State to cover is currently the 2nd most popular CFP wager in regards to overall tickets at BetMGM books.
"We opened Penn State -10.5 and are sitting on Penn State -11," Thomas Gable, sportsbook director at The Borgata in Atlantic City, told The Athletic. "I would not be surprised if this line sneaks up a bit more before kickoff, however I presently invite any Boise State money."
Ohio State got the Oregon second possibility it desired. Are the Buckeyes prepared for vengeance?
No. 8 Ohio State (-2.5, 55.5) vs. No. 1 Oregon
Perhaps most surprising to the general public is that No. 1 seed Oregon is an underdog versus No. 8 Ohio State. These groups met back on Oct. 7 in Eugene, and Oregon won 32-31 as a 3.5-point home pet.
So why is OSU preferred?
Several oddsmakers The Athletic spoke with before the CFP very first round had Ohio State atop their power ratings, and the lookahead lines for this hypothetical matchup were Ohio State -1 or -1.5. One oddsmaker discussed that Ohio State playing up to its power score in its dominant first-round win over Tennessee also formed his opening line.
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Ohio State opened as a 1- or 1.5-point preferred (depending on the sportsbook) in this game before highly regarded cash pushed it to the present line of -2.5. A a little greater bulk of wagers at a number of sportsbooks, approximately 60%, are on the Ducks to cover, while close to 60% of the money has actually come in on the Buckeyes. This will likely be the highest-handle game of the 4 come kickoff.
"We did take some respected money at -1.5, rapidly went to -2.5 where it's remained," Gable said. "It's decent two-way action at that number right now. The overall has gone up 3 points from 52.5 to 55.5, which has been the greatest move of any of the overalls. Money has all been on the over up until now.
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Joe Brennan, the CEO of Prime sports betting, a sportsbook in Ohio and New Jersey that caters to sharp gamblers, told The Athletic that "Ohio State opened as a 1-point preferred, and immediately our Ohio gamblers believed we were too low. Our opening cost of Ohio State -1 has been increased to -2.5 and the overall from 52 to 55."
He did note, though, that the book had actually seen substantial buyback at the current line of Ohio State -2.5 which 52% of the overall dollars at his book were taking the points with the Ducks.
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The most likely upsets for the College Football Playoff's second round
No. 7 Notre Dame vs. No. 2 Georgia (-1, 45)
The favorite turned in this video game, as Notre Dame opened a 1.5-point preferred and is currently a 1- or 1.5-point underdog at sportsbooks.
What caused the line flip? Simply put, the sports betting action.
Despite the fact that Georgia's beginning QB Carson Beck is out for the season and has been changed by relative unknown Gunner Stockton, wagerers are gravitating toward the Bulldogs.
Georgia to cover is the most popular versus the spread wager at BetMGM books nationally in regards to ticket count (second-most popular by total dollars wagered), and it has been "one-way traffic on Georgia," according to Magee. Nearly 70% of bets are on the Bulldogs at several sportsbooks.
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College Football Playoff Betting Action Report: 'All the Cash is Coming in On Texas'
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